Wednesday, November 04, 2009

Shurtleff Out --What does it mean for the other competitors?

With Attorney General Mark Shurleff suspending his campaign for US Senate to deal with family matters surrounding his daughter's depression, what does it mean for the other people in the race?

Sen Bob Bennett (R)

In the eyes of many, this boiled down to a two-person race -- Shurtleff vs Bennett. With the AG out of the picture, Bennett's run get much easier. There's still a chance, but his road to reelection definitely got easier today.

Sam Granato (D)

Easily the person most hurt by this is Sam. Let's face it, the best-case scenario for Dems was a Shurtleff-Granato race to November. The worst-case scenario is Bennett-Granato.

Cherilyn Eagar (R)

This is definitely a win-lose for the Eagar camp. On one hand, it opens the door for more media coverage. On the other hand, she loses much of the "anything you can do I can do better" competition she was playing with Shurtleff. She'll gain some of the delegates that were looking to Shurtleff for change, but not enough to make a difference.

Tim Bridgewater (R)

The second-worst-kept secret in the 2010 cycle has been that Tim Bridgewater was running for Senate. And, because of that, the announcement of his campaign came with little fanfare. However, with Shurtleff gone, it allows him to step up to the plate. His experience in the Republican Convention/Primary system from his two runs for the US House gives him the leg up in recruiting delegates. He is the new favorite to force a primary with Bennett. his ability to win a primary is another question.



Daniel B. said...

Never a dull moment in this game...

arc said...

Actually, as a state gop delegate, I have not expected Senator Bennett to make it out of convention. He needs 40% to get it. He had much less than that of people excited to hear him speak at the last convention in June.

Bridgewater was at the convention last June, but since he didn't file until October, most people interested in him have decided to look somewhere else.

That leaves Eagar, Williams or someone new.

This race has been, and still is Eagar's to loose, as far as the GOP side for sometime.

You might want to consider an Eagar v Granato race.

Personally, I think Granato would have a better chance of winning against Bennett.