Tuesday, November 06, 2012

My 2012 Election Projection Malarkey

I may not be quite as prolific at blogging as I once was, but I though that I'd share my Election Night predictions.  I post them with this caveat:  In the early days of this blog, I made my predictions about election day, and Jeff Bell told me that my predictions were "a bunch of [male bovine excrement]."  Or, as Vice President Biden called it during the debate, Malarkey.

So, here's my pile of malarkey for today. Keep in mind that I would love to be wrong on a few of these:

Obama/Biden 281 electoral votes.  I admit, this is probably a little low, but I don't want to feel overconfident.  Before today, i thought that Romney might win the popular vote, but now I have a gut feeling that Obama will pull out a narrow victory here, too.  Under 1.5%.

The Democrats will hang on to the Senate 52-48.  The House will remain in GOP hands.


Romney will get 72% of the vote here in Utah and win every county.  Herbert and Hatch will win reelection with 62%.

Mia Love will be Representative Love by 2 points.

Utah Democrats will be further in the minority in the Legislature, losing 1 Senate seat and 1 House seat.

Ben McAdams will be Mayor McAdams by 2 points as well.

Millcreek will become a city.

Am I wrong?  Probably, but the only way to see is to watch the results tonight.  I've got 160 national races and a dozen or so local races to follow, and I'm live-blogging the results from the time the first polls close at 5 PM until the Utah Democratic Party kicks me out of the Sheraton Hotel.  Follow on the blog, or I'll be posting links on Twitter and Facebook (with some additional coverage on these platforms).

What races are you interested in?

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