Showing posts with label Liveblogging. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Liveblogging. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Liveblogging Election Night 2012 6:45 Update


Obama: 64 confirmed 173 likely 44 possible 281 total
Romney 82 confirmed 98 likely 55 possible 235 total

Popular Vote, Per CNN: Romney 51, Obama 47

Since the last post, CNN has called the following states:
Connecticut - Obama
District of Columbia - Obama
Delaware - Obama
Georgia - Romney
Illinois - Obama
Massachusetts - Obama
Maine - Obama
Maryland - Obama
Oklahoma - Romney
Rhode Island - Obama
Tennessee - Romney
Arkansas - Romney
Alabama - Romney

SENATE RACES
Angus King (I) Wins, as was expected.  He is expected to caucus with the Democrats.

HOUSE RACES
No Races on the watch list called since last post

GOVERNORS RACES
Jack Markell (D) Won reelection, as was expected.

4:50 PM Electoral base map

Tonight, I'm going to be using the mapping program from RealClearPolitics to visually show the electoral numbers.  The base map is as follows:


This map shows Obama potentially up 281-235, with 22 votes in the toss-up category.

Throughout the night, as state are called, I'll be coloring states darker on the map.  Also, I'll give numbers this way:

Obama: 0 Confirmed, 237 likely, 44 probable, 281 total
Romney: 0 Confirmed, 180 likely, 55 possible, 235 total

Confirmed is states that they have won, likely is the darker-blue numbers, possible is the light blue.

-Bob

My 2012 Election Projection Malarkey

I may not be quite as prolific at blogging as I once was, but I though that I'd share my Election Night predictions.  I post them with this caveat:  In the early days of this blog, I made my predictions about election day, and Jeff Bell told me that my predictions were "a bunch of [male bovine excrement]."  Or, as Vice President Biden called it during the debate, Malarkey.

So, here's my pile of malarkey for today. Keep in mind that I would love to be wrong on a few of these:

Federal:
Obama/Biden 281 electoral votes.  I admit, this is probably a little low, but I don't want to feel overconfident.  Before today, i thought that Romney might win the popular vote, but now I have a gut feeling that Obama will pull out a narrow victory here, too.  Under 1.5%.

The Democrats will hang on to the Senate 52-48.  The House will remain in GOP hands.

Utah

Romney will get 72% of the vote here in Utah and win every county.  Herbert and Hatch will win reelection with 62%.

Mia Love will be Representative Love by 2 points.

Utah Democrats will be further in the minority in the Legislature, losing 1 Senate seat and 1 House seat.

Ben McAdams will be Mayor McAdams by 2 points as well.

Millcreek will become a city.

Am I wrong?  Probably, but the only way to see is to watch the results tonight.  I've got 160 national races and a dozen or so local races to follow, and I'm live-blogging the results from the time the first polls close at 5 PM until the Utah Democratic Party kicks me out of the Sheraton Hotel.  Follow on the blog, or I'll be posting links on Twitter and Facebook (with some additional coverage on these platforms).

What races are you interested in?

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

LIVEBLOG: The Legislature is talkin about ethics

I'm at the State Capitol this morning attending a hearing about ethics reform. Congressman Bishop is going to be joining us. I'm going to be updating this as we go, so be prepared for spelling and punctuation errors as we go.

9:04 glad to see these things run even less on time in the summer than they do during the session.

9:10 finally starting. skippping minutes and moving on to Rep Bishop.

9:11 RBishop: I think it's funny that you're looking to Wasington for how to do ethics.

Bishop is part of the pool of legislators that could be drawn to sit on investigative subcommittee.

This type of thing needs to be done with compassion and free of political games.

All complaints from members of congress must have personal knowledge, no innuendo. Can't be within 60 days of election.

This is not a new issue. We were studying this since I was speaker.

lobbyists can't take a representative to a baseball game unless he also gets a campaign donation too.

sen jenkins: is dislosure enough?

rep bishop: I'm not sure. It has some merit.

sen mccoy: why should a lobbyist be paying for your lunch?

rep bishop: when i became a lobbyist, didn't pay for meals because i realized many legislators don't have time for meals.

rep king: should discloure come from the legisaltor or the lobbyist?

rep bishop: I have opinion either way.

sen killpack: when legislators do the process, they are accountable to the voters. when an independent comission is appointed, they are beholden to those who elected them.

rep bishop: congress has a habit of "we want a solution, but we don't want to deal with it." so they appoint an unelected comission. do you devolve your athority onto some other group, or do you take it upon yourself?

rep dougall: please tlk more about travel rules.

rep bishop: all travel must be approved, whether it's funded by government or outside entity. More and more people are using the ethics panel to get advice.

rep cosgrove: asking about campaign donation caps. does it put a halt on free speech?

rb: if you move into regulating donations, don't move into saying that some money is good and some is bad. our system in washington is a great incumbent protection system. (i'll have to pull the audio to get full comment).

9:40 moving on to other business.

Utah State Bar Ethics Commission Process

Art Berger, Former Chair, Utah Supreme Court Ethics and Discipline Committee

AB: 34 people on office of professional conduct (ethics committee), 8 are non-lawyers. Complaints that come in and are reviewed before procecuted, and there is an appeals process if denied. Committee has diversity of location, type of lawyer/law firm. both parties can be represented if they desire. rules of evidence do not apply like in a court hearing. office of prof conduct also works to educte lawyers on ethics, including running a hotline and continuing education. all lawyers are required to take ethics class each year.

rep dougall: it's a private process, correct?

ab: it is, until it is clear that disciplinary process.

rep dougall: is it appropriate for attorneys to sit on the panel?

ab: usually, people who come before panel think attorneys will protect their own. Attorneys who come before the panel feel that the panel is out to get them. the members of the public that are there help bring some independance to the committee.

rep dougall: how is opening on the panel filled

ab: publicity to get applications, then ut supreme court gets involved. all members are volunteer. 3 year terms, no more than two consecutive terms. they can serve again after break of one year.

rep cosgrove: open vs closed.

ab: being an attorney isn't a public ffice. being in the legislature is. having an open process can help protect against inapproriate charges against legislators, people people will see what's actually going on in the hearing.

next agenda item:

Constitutionality of Independent Ethics Commissions - Recent Nevada Supreme Court Decision -- John L. Fellows, General Counsel

nevada supreme court held that legislature can't appoint an independent ethics comission over legislators. utah constitution has similar restrictions that nevada used. nevada was executive branch comission, a legislative branch comission could be ok.

next item:

Discussion of Utah Legislative Ethics Committee Membership, Jurisdiction, and Powers
-- John L. Fellows

sen mccoy: every citizen is required to obey every law, including those they don't know about. shouldn't the same apply to a member of the legislator.

sen killpack: we have seen the problems that come from the citizen initiative process. we need to act in a proper manner so that others won't.

adjurn.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Following the Utah Democratic Party Convention Online

Assuming you can't make it to the Utah Democratic Convention at Murray High School, here are some ways to follow the happenings:

*Assuming there are not internet snafus, I'll be liveblogging. Newer posts will appear below this one.

*Twitter. I'll be Tweeting, as will many other Utah Democrats (and others). Follow the #utpol and #utdem tags.

-Bob

11:15 AM Wayne Holland's first speech

Chairman holland gets to speak as chairman and later as candidate.

(this is quick and dirty, and not verbatum)

President obama, senator franken, and chairman joe hatch are our successes

many heros in the word, troops, etc. other couragous heros are dem elected officials and candidates. some are a cycle away.

and it's you, the precinct chair, vice chairs, etc.

today, after to successful election cycles, we meet in the shadow of five successful canpaigns no more walker, curtis, christienson.

weber and utah county, some candidates performed better and are poised for victory.

we need to move forward.

our nation is again proud of our president. america, freedom, democracy.

as we move forward, let us imagine sometime in the next decade, the speaker's gavel in litvack's hand, president's chair filled by sen jones, and the chance to elect a demo governor.

and we can and will elect a us senator.

the 2010 election starts today.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Liveblog: Blogger Presser @ the Capitol

I'm live at the blogger deal at the Capitol. To view online, click here.

1608: After everyone introduced ourselves, Senator Urqhart introduced SB 208 that will allow legal notices on state web site.

1616: There would be a nominal fee to publish the legal notice. The actual cost of the fee is unknown at this time.

1617: The requirement of an online notice would be anywhere a legal notice is required in the current law.

1618: Currently, hundreds of thousands of dollars (possibly low 7 figures) is spent on legal notices.

1619: No feedback yet from newspaper publishers.

1620: archives.utah.gov is likely where the legal notices will be published.

1621: database of notices will be searchable (location, type, etc)

1628: ethan at slcspin asked if this was an anti-media bill. the answer (from the senator) is that it's a pro-consumer bill. not governments job to prop up a industry.

1632: implementation will be in 2010 so that any tweaks that come from the technology can be rectified in annother session.

1634: JMBell texted in to ask Ethan why, since he's no longer a real blogger, he's hogging all the questions. (Ethan asked 3, everyone else asked one. While I liked JM's point, Ethan didn't exactly hog out time.)

1637: Sen Neiderhauser speaking on transparency moves by the state government.

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Democratic Results as of 6:53 PM

Alabama (33% in)
Obama 59%
Clinton 39%

Arkansas (7% in)
Clinton 73%
Obama 22%

Connecticut (47% in)
Obama 50%
Clinton 48%

Delaware (92% in)
Obama 53%
Clinton 43%

Georgia (64% in)
Obama 62%
Clinton 36%

Idaho (9% in)
Obama 73%
Clinton 23%

Illinois (20% in)
Obama 65%
Clinton 33%

Kansas (36% in)
Obama 71%
Clinton 29%

Massachusetts (50% in)
Clinton 58%
Obama 39%

Minnesota (7% in)
Obama 63%
Clinton 35%

Missouri (22% in)
Clinton 57%
Obama 38%

New Jersey (45% in)
Clinton 55%
Obama 42%

New York (18% in
Clinton 62%
Obama 35%

North Dakota (26% in)
Obama 54%
Clinton 43%

Oklahoma (61% in)
Clinton 55%
Obama 30%

Tennessee (34% in)
Clinton 60%
Obama 31%

Republican Results as of 7:12 PM

Alabama (15% in)
McCain 42%
Huckabee 33%
Romney 20%

Arkansas (3% in)
Huckabee 59%
McCain 23%

Connecticut (28% in)
McCain 53%
Romney 32%

Delaware (81% in)
McCain 45%
Romney 33%
Huckabee 16%

Georgia (42% in)
Huckabee 35%
McCain 32%
Romney 29%

Illinois (6% in)
McCain 51%
Romney 29%

Massachusetts (21%)
Romney 52%
McCain 41%

Missouri (5% in)
Huckabee 37%
McCain 30%
Romney 24%

Montana (14% in)
McCain 39%
Romney 27%
Huckabee 19%
Paul 15%

New Jersey (24% in)
McCain 56%
Romney 28%

Oklahoma (26% in)
McCain 37%
Huckabee 34%
Romney 23%

Tennessee (13% in)
McCain 34%
Huckabee 30%
Romney 21%

West Virginia (100%)
Huckabee 52%
Romney 47%

Democratic Results as of 6:53 PM

Alabama (10% in)
Obama 70%
Clinton 29%

Arkansas (1% in)
Clinton 69%
Obama 26%

Connecticut (23% in)
Obama 50%
Clinton 48%

Delaware (29% in)
Obama 48%
Clinton 46%

Georgia (30% in)
Obama 59%
Clinton 38%

Ilinois (3% in)
Obama 56%
Clinton 42%

Massachusetts (11% in)
Clinton 56%
Obama 40%

Missouri (2% in)
Clinton 54%
Obama 36%

New Jersey (5% in)
Clinton 62%
Obama 34%

Oklahoma (12% in)
Clinton 55%
Obama 27%

Tennessee (5% in)
Clinton 58%
Obama 30%

Today has been amazing

I have had the unique opportunity to help man the help/complaint line at Utah Democratic Primary Headquarters all day today. In fact, I'll be here until polls close tonight, when I'll head down to the Young Democrats' party at Cannella's on the corner of 500 south 200 East.

So, what calls have we been getting today?

-The number one type of call I have gotten is people who are registered as Republicans but wanted to vote Democratic today and couldn't.

-People wanting to know their poling location.

-People upset tat they had to declare to the poll worker which primary they were voting in.

-People looking for the phone numbers/addresses of the Obama and Clinton campaigns.

-People who just called to say they were excited to vote.

-Bob

Thursday, January 03, 2008

MSNBC calls Iowa for Obama!

Obama coming in first is great. Who comes in second?

As Keith Olbermann just said, this is only the first inning of this game.

-Bob

2/3 of the Dem votes in

With 69% of the votes in:

Obama 35%
Edwards 31%
Clinton 31%
Richardson 2%
Biden 1%
Dodd 0%

NBC, CNN calling Iowa for Huckabee

CNN and NBC are calling the Iowa Caucuses for Huckabee.

On the Democratic side, it's Obama Edwrads Clinton at 33%, 32%, 32%.

-Bob

Live Blogging Cacus shown on CSPAN

I'm liveblogging the caucus coverage being shown on CSPAN. I'll liveblog the results when this is over.

605: they are going through the nitty gritty details about electing precinct captains. We'll get to the good stuff in a moment...

No wonder nobody goes to these things. Sausage making at it's finest.

612: 323 people are attending the caucus. By my math, that means 49 people are needed for viability. They are breaking up into their groups now.

This is my second caucus I've watched, and it seems to go smoother that four years ago...

620: They are showing some good discussion going between a Dodd and Richardson discussion. The gal from the Richardson campaign is doing a good job of talking about his issues, and building on common traits with the other participants. Kudos to Barbara, I think she said her name was.

623: Obama looks to be dominant here. I like the Obama guy talking about experience, mentioning Obama's line about Rumsfeld having strong experience.

637: dodd, kucinich, biden, and richardson are not currently viable. 15 minutes to realign and get viability. Their number for what constitutes 15% is 57, seems off to me. Richardson is trying hard to hit viability...

643: it's turning into a high school spoting event, with difeerent groups breaking into cheers...

647: I think I'd be sick of counting by this point. Learning skills like counting off really help in adult life. Who knew?

650: I think the only thing more boring than watching this would be to read someone liveblogging the TV coverage of the event. Thanks for staying with me...

654: just waiting for the Obama people (I think) to finish their count...

655: Someone a little unclear of the concept, wearing a Ron Paul shirt to a Democratic Caucus.

657: Final Count for this caucus -- 186 obama 116 edwards 74 clinton

700: Now the groups select their delegates to the county convention. Obama gets one delegate, edwards gets 2, and clinton 1.

And, with this, I switch over to election results...