Forcasting Iowa

The Iowa Caucuses are a week from tomorrow. Because of the nature of the caucus system, turnout hovers around 4%. Therefore, getting "your" people out is critical.

The Unions do a good job of getting their members to the caucuses. Union members are good at turning people over to their candidates. However, their effectiveness decreases as turnout increases. John Edwards has strong union backing. So, if turnout is relatively low, look for Edwards to win.

Hillary Clinton is polling well in frequent caucus goers. So, if turnout is normal, look for large success from Hillary.

Barack Obama has high numbers from both occasional and new caucus goers. So, if turnout is high, look for success from Obama.

One big key for turnout has nothing to do with your machine on the ground. It has to do with the weather. If the weather nest Thursday evening is crappy, turnout will be low. If it's a nice day (for Iowa in January -- it's all relative), turnout will be higher.

So, I'll be updating you on what the weather forecast for Des Moines, Iowa, for Thursday. As we get closer, I'll give you details for the hours around caucus time.

Current forecast for Des Moines, Iowa -- January 3: Scattered Snow, 30% chance Precip, 29 high, 20 low.