Election 2008 Predictions

Back in 2006, I made some predictions, which my friend Jeff Bell called bovine excrement.

Jeff was right.

So, with that in mind, here's my election predictions for 2008, pulled completely out of by hairy white butt.

Federal

President, popular vote: Obama by 5%
President, electoral vote: Obama 315 McCain 223
Senate: 56-2-42 Democrats
House: 248-187 Democrats

Closer to home:

-Incumbents carry all three US House seats
-Huntsman wins by biggest margin in nation
-Dems net gain of 4 seats in house
-Dems net gain of 1 seat in Senate

NOTE: This is not what I am wishing for, and I think I've lowballed a few of these.

-Bob

Utah's Common Values Represented by Democrats

From Utah Democratic Party Chair Wayne Holland:

The GOP Legislature threw down the gauntlet nine months ago and enacted the most comprehensive voucher law in the country, overcoming (by one vote) a bloc of every Democratic legislator united in a courageous effort stop it and ignoring the wishes of the majority of Utahns.

Republicans made good on their long-time commitment to wealthy out-of-state allies and educational profiteers, a nationwide coalition of far-right ideologues - "Friedmanites" as The Salt Lake Tribune editorial board called them - whose stated goal is the privatization of American education.

It was an in-your-face display of self-righteous arrogance by Republicans sitting pretty in districts they gerrymandered to protect themselves. They put their anti-democracy streak on display. It's easy to sum up their attitude: "There's no need to vote. Just stay at home. We know what's best."

Utahns have core COMMON VALUES, among them a commitment to quality schools for everyone, strong families for today and the future, decent jobs, government accountability, fair play, environmental stewardship, and common-sense legislation that will improve our Utah way of life.

The voucher crowd mounted a mean-spirited campaign that relied on distortions, dirty tricks, and personal smears. Their campaign of nastiness did not reflect Utahns' COMMON VALUES, our sense of common decency. It did not reflect the values of Democrats.

It reflected the self-righteousness of the leadership of the Utah Republican Party.

On Nov. 6, send a message to your GOP Legislature. Democrats and the majority of Utahns share concerns and common-sense solutions. Send a message about our COMMON VALUES.

The 2008 election represents a historical opportunity for Democrats in Utah. GOP arrogance and culture of corruption and incompetence on the national level provide us an opportunity to bring Utah voters home, where their COMMON VALUES will be honorably represented in public service.

A columnist for the The Deseret Morning News recently said vouchers have "the potential to significantly change not only our public education operations, but Utah society itself."

As concerned citizens, you, me and every Utah Democrat most vote.

Let's make tomorrow the beginning of the end of GOP arrogance in Utah.

A big win will propel us into the important 2008 election year.

Becker and Wilson: a Comtrast in Campaign Styles

If you had asked me two weeks ago who would come out of Yesterday's Primary, I would have told you Jenny Wilson and Dave Buhler. Jenny seemed to have the dominating lead in the polls, had a new ad on TV, and wasgoing strong.

Then, last Friday, Becker/Buhler/Wilson were in a three-way tie.

So, how did Becker go on to win by 11 points?

Volunteers.

From Day 1, Becker had built his campaign on doing the small and simple things, getting people out in neighborhoods, Getting himself out in neighborhoods, and utilizing small, simple, inexpensive, and yet effective methods to advertise. He had a strong group of supporters running around on Election Day. Becker's campaign was summed up by Glenden Brown over at One Utah:

I’ve been volunteering with this campaign since June - a lot of folks there last night have been volunteering since June. There were tears and cheers. There’s something about having been there for months, having walked precincts in July when it was 100 + degrees, having stood on street corners waving signs and seeing it pay off. The crowd you may have seen on TV or in the papers was cheering itself hoarse, clapping until everyone’s hands hurt. Once in a while, the right candidate comes along and Ralph Becker has been the right candidate - I have no idea how many people volunteered yesterday to do pollwatching, but everytime I was there I saw group of 15 or 20 people heading out to poll watch. Over the summer, I saw groups head out to walk precincts every time I was there - not just one or two people, but eight and ten people in a single evening or saturday morning.

Annother campaign that did a good job of this was the Buhler campaign. There was hardly an event in Salt Lake City that didn't have the Buhler people out in force with balloons, signs, and large life-sized cutouts of the candidate, and the candidate himself.

The two biggest spenders in the race this year are done campaigning. Christensen's Main Street office and lots of advertising didn't help him one bit. Likewise, Wilson's ad blitz just wasn't enough.

In the end, the grassroots were the real winner last night.

-Bob

[edit 9/13/07 0027: as a commenter mentioned, I wrote wilson when I meant Becker, and things didn't make sense, unless you were smart enough to read what I meant, not what I wrote....]

A challenge to get out the vote

Municipal Primaries have very anemic voter turnout numbers. In logan, the number was somewhere around 8%.

Municipal general elections aren't much better. The voucher issue will help some this year.

Jay Monson, who is running for the Logan City Council, had a message posted on KVNU's For the People:

We wish to issue a challenge to the citizens of this fine city of Logan and all throughout our valley. Exercising your right to vote is embedded in the very history of this great nation. The voice of the people and their right to be heard gave birth to the USA. Many foreign nations are struggling for that right today. Let us join together as citizens to rekindle the spirit of democracy at the grass-roots level. Become informed and then vote as you see best. Better still, also strongly encourage your neighbors, friends, work associates, those you worship with….all adults, to be registered voters and to VOTE in the final election on Tuesday, November 6th.

Service clubs, Lions, Moose, Rotary, Kiwanis, the League of Women Voters, Schools, Churches, government groups, media workers, please discuss this situation and join in a campaign to encourage voters to participate in this freedom given right to vote. It’s what America is all about. Please let us not take this for granted.