Remembering Nov 4, 2008

In 1992, I remember watching the election returns with my map of the United States that had been printed in the newspaper,coloring the states red and blue depending on how Dan Rather told me the states had voted.

I was 13.

In 2000, I voted for the first time. I paid a little more attention to the local returns than the national, but was determined to stay awake until a President was named. I fell asleep shortly after it was declared, but before it was un-declared. Imagine y confusion when I woke up at 3AM to discover that we still didn't know who would be President.

In 2008, I sat huddled in the back of the "media room" the Utah Democratic Party had set up at the Radisson. I was there at a table with several members of the Salt Lake news media and Aaron Thompson, all plugging away at our computers. Shortly after 8:00, either Ohio or Pennsylvania (I can't remember which) was declared for Obama. I blurted out "We did it. We actually did it." Nobody heard me, which was fine with me. I didn't want to blurt it out too much. However,I knew that unless a blue state move red, Obama had won the Presidency.

Just a few days before the election, I had ridden the TRAX train out of Downtown SLC with a nice elderly lady, who told me, out of the blue, that she had been at the election night celebration when Eisenhower won in 1952. She shared the joy and elation of that night so many years before.

One year ago tonight, I knew I had a story totell random strangers on the train in 2064.

-Bob

The end of an era? 1980 and 2008

There has been much speculation over the past 10 days or so that President-Elect Obama's victory signals the end of the Reagan era of American politics.

I really think kind of statement has to be looked at from the future. Say, in eight years. Then, and only then, can we talk about history.

After all, you could have said the same thing in November 1992, only to be proven wrong in 1994.

However, that thought, that this is a long-term change in America got me to thinking.

The picture that accompanies this post is a picture of my nephew. He is almost the exact age now that I was on January 20, 1981. The day Ronald Reagan took office.

And the thought struck me that the memories I have of President Reagan, the effect that Nancy Reagan had on me, is the same way my nephew is going to look upon President Obama.

And that is enough to put a smile on my face.

-Bob

The story nobody is talking about: Amendment E FAILS

When you have five constitutional amendments, and none of them has any organized opposition, you expect them to pass.

And if they all pass, you'd forgive the media for not reporting it. After all, they ignore such obvious stories as Corroon, Huntsman, and McCain (in Utah, at least) winning.

OK, so maybe they didn't ignore those stories.

However, I'm a little shocked that these results aren't getting at least a little press:

Amendment A: Yes: 75.86% 613,744 No: 24.14% 195,312
Amendment B: Yes: 66.04% 527,873 No: 33.96% 271,504
Amendment C: Yes: 70.71% 569,389 No: 29.29% 235,849
Amendment D: Yes: 78.25% 619,390 No: 21.75% 172,150
Amendment E: Yes: 43.64% 351,850 No: 56.36% 454,399

When the other four measures passed by 2-1 or 3-1, Why did Amendment E fail?

-BOb

Final Election Posts Coming

Sorry I wasn't able to post more. My brain was pretty shot from running on no more than two hours of sleep, and people kept coming over an distracting me. I need to decide in the future if I'm going to blog or enjoy the results. I'll probably take the latter.

Today, I would think I had a hangover if I was a drinker, but I had nothing stronger than Dr Pepper (and a Diet DP at that), so it's a hangover of joy.

Add to that the fact that I have yesterday and today's work to finish before working the Jazz game tonight, I don't have time to do the work on the posts I want to. So, it will wait for tomorrow.

However, I'll list here what you'll see coming soon:

*A Generational Shift: 1980-2008
*Looking Forward: Election 2010, 2012
*Utah's Legislative Races
*Utah: Democratic success or failure?
*Things I actually literally hope to literally never actually have to hear again.

Meanwhile, it's been fun to look at people's Facebook status updates celebrating Obama's victory, including several friends who surprise me that they were Obama people.

It's also been fun to read victory blog posts. My favorite, from the BYU Democrats:



I'm pretty sure there's an honor code violation in there somewhere.

9:32 PM -- People need to understand I'm working here

The reason I'm having trouble posting is because people keep interrupting me. I'll get more in a moment.

-Bob

9:05 PM -- VICTORY! GOBAMA!

That's all I can say right now.

This is wonderful!

MOre in a minute.

Obama 207 McCain 135 (Obama +14)

Local numbers are still slow in coming in. Only 0.36% reporting statewide. I'm going to wait to start running those numbers when it's above 1%.

8:23 PM -- Obama 207 McCain 129 (Obama +14)

Early vote numbers are coming in here in Utah.

CNN exit poll has more people in Utah disapproving of Bush than approving.

-Bob

8:08 PM -- Obama 206 McCain 89 (Obama +14)

I can't wait for Utah numbers to start coming in for real.

7:55 PM -- Obama 200 McCain 75 (Obama +7)

I'm here at the Radisson, waiting for the Utah polls to close in 5 minutes.

With New Mexico and Ohio going blue, it looks like Obama may have it.

7:11 PM -- Obama 175 McCain 46 (Obama -18)

I'm going to be leaving in a bit to head to the Radisson Hotel for the Utah Democratic Party's um..... Party.

7:01 -- Obama 103 McCain 43 (Obama -18)

A whole new batch is about to come out, as the largest batch of polls close.

6:47 PM -- Obama 103 McCain 34 (Obama -18)

Pennsylvania, McCain's best chance for grabbing a Kerry state, has been called for Obama.

Still, not one of my "Green" states (states that went for Bush in 2004 but could go to Obama) has been called yet.

-Bob

6:32 PM -- Obama 82 McCain 34 (Obama -18)

From CNN's exit polling, it seems like the female-to-male ratio of voters is 54-46.

Utah polls close in 88 minutes.

6:08 PM -- Obama 78 McCain 34 (Obama -18)

Could this night get any longer?

5:55 PM -- Things should start picking up soon

A bunch of states are going to start rolling in at 6:00 MST. Looking at CNN's exit polling in several states that have already closed, Women are voting more for Obama than McCain/Palin.

interesting....

5:10 PM -- Obama 3, McCain 8, (Obama -18)

No big surprises here, with Vermont and Kentucky being called right after they close.

Details of My Election Night Coverage

Starting with the first polls closing at 5:00, I'll start talking about the presidential race. Once Utah polls close at 8:00, I'll start covering state legislative races.

I talked about how I'm breaking down the electoral vote in my previous post. I'm going to use CNN.com as my source for when a state is "declared."

All 75 Utah House seats are up for grabs, as are 15 Senate races. Since there is minimal exit polling in these races, I will not declare any of them won based on exit polls. I've developed my own strategy for declaring a race based on vote tallies. For at least the first hour, many races will be "Too close to call" because the votes largely haven't been counted. This will change as the night wears on.

Since all seats are up for grabs, the house will start at 8:00 with a count of 0 Republicans, 0 Democrats, and 75 TCTC (too close to call). The balance going into the election was 55-20.

The Senate will start out with a count of 9 Republicans, 5 Democrats, and 15 TCTC. The balance going into the election was 21-8.

What to expect with the electoral college

In my next post, I'll talk about how I plan on covering the election. However, I want to let you know what you can expect nationally tonight.

Barack Obama needs to win all of the states John Kerry won plus an additional 18 electoral votes. Iowa, with 7 electoral votes, is considered Obama country, which puts him needing11 more. McCain claims that blue state Pennsylvania is up for grabs, but for simple math, we'll factor that in when it happens.

I broke down the states according to when the final polls close in that state. I divided them into three categories, with designated colors:

1) States won by John Kerry (blue)
2) States won by George W Bush considered safe McCain (red)
3) States won by Bush that are either considered Obama or toss up (green)

So, based on when polls close, here is the breakdown of what you get (all times mountain), with what states are in the "green" category:

5:00 PM Obama 3 McCain 16 "Green" 39
Georgia (15), Virginia (13), and Indiana (11)
5:30 PM Obama 3 McCain 21 "Green" 59
Ohio (20)
6:00 PM Obama 103 McCain 54 "Green" 97
Florida (27), Missouri (11)
6:30 PM Obama 103 McCain 60 "Green" 112
North Carolina (15)
7:00 PM Obama 175 McCain 120 "Green" 137
Arizona (10), Colorado (10), New Mexico (5)
8:00 PM Obama 175 McCain 125 "Green" 152
Iowa (7), Montana (3), Nevada (5)
9:00 PM Obama 252, McCain 129, "Green" 155
North Dakota (3)
11:00 PM Obama 252, McCain 132, "Green" 155

When you see "Obama -18," it means that by the above math, Obama still needs 18 electoral votes to 270. Likewise, "Obama +18" would mean that if McCain wins all the green and red states and Obama the blue, Obama finishes with 288 electoral votes.

This is going to be a fun ride.

-Bob

Election Night 2008

Tomorrow Night, I plan on providing live commentary on both the presidential race and local races here on the blog. If there is anything in particular you would like to see me cover, leave it in the comments.

Here are some of the public places inviting you to come watch election returns:

Salt Lake City Library Main Branch until 9:00 PM

Utah Republicans -- Grand America Hotel

Utah Democrats -- Downtown Radisson

Brewvies is inviting people to come watch on the big screen

Utah for Obama at In the Venue