Jon Stewart vs Mike Huckabee on Gay Marriage

Jon Huntsman will *NOT* be McCain's VP, so let's stop talking about it!

The latest local media hype-story has been that Governor Jon Huntsman could possibly be picked as John McCain's running mate. The theory goes that he comes from a rich family, has bucked a good chunk of his fellow Utah Republicans in endorsing McCain over Romney, and his LDS faith appeals to many conservatives.

However, this is baloney. I'd bet dinner that Huntsman will not be selected as McCain's Vice President. Here's why:

1) He's from Utah. Utah is Arizona's neighbor. Usually, you pick someone from another part of the country from you, not someone from an adjacent state. Furthermore, the VP candidate will probably be from a state where the Presidential election is expected to be close. While an Obama-McCain election will be closer in Utah than any presidential race in the past 20 years, if the Republicans are that worried about losing Utah, they're in more trouble than it's worth.

2) He is up for reelection this year. With a 75% approval rating, why does this matter? Well, he simply cannot run for Governor and be the VP nominee. Utah Code 20A-9-201:

(2) (a) Except as provided in Subsection (2)(b), a person may not:
(i) file a declaration of candidacy for, or be a candidate for, more than one office in Utah during any election year; or
(ii) appear on the ballot as the candidate of more than one political party.
(b) A person may file a declaration of candidacy for, or be a candidate for, President or Vice President of the United States and another office, if the person resigns the person's candidacy for the other office after the person is officially nominated for President or Vice President of the United States.

He would have to drop out of the race in September after the convention. If he drops out any time after 5:00 PM March 17, the Republican Party cannot replace him on the ballot unless he drops out for medical reasons. Should they try that, it would cause problems with the VP campaign ("He's not medically able to run for Governor in Utah, but can be a heartbeat away from the presidency?")

3) Jon Huntsman is not as conservative as the conservative branch would like. Furthermore, there's that pesky Mormon thing. See: Mitt Romney,

So, who do I think will be on McCain's short list?

A) Mitt Romney. He's looking for a job.

B) Mike Huckabee. He's the anti-McCain. Will bring the party together.

C) Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota. Comes in to the right of Huntsman. MN is a swing state.

D) Condi Rice. Helps counter the uniqueness of either a Hillary or Obama candidacy. Especially helpful if the Dem nominee isn't known until August.

Anyone you think should be on the list that I've missed?

-Bob

New DNews Utah Presidential Poll

Obama vs a McCain/Huckabee ticket Blue Gold for Utah?

I have heard from several of my Republican friends (including several who previously thought I was going to Hell for being a Democrat) who have told me over the past several weeks that they would vote for Obama over McCain and/or Huckabee.

And, my friends are not the only ones who are thinking this way.

From texts to KSL's Nightside Project, stolen from SLCSPIN:

Im cory age 31 in bountiful. im a republican. i vote 4 romney. i hate mccain and will vote 4 obama if it comes to it.

One huge reason why i Think the younger generation would rather vote obama over McCain is because he comes across to be more trustworthy. McCain is a dirty guy

Im a white lds male 27 years old, we need change and obama has my vote!

Obma has my vote, if romeny doesn’t win I’m 35 year male rep lds.

When was the last candidate you were inspired by? I can’t declare my vote now, but obama is definitely an option

Why is Huck still in the race? haha I will vote Osama Obama over McCain unless he has one hell of a VP! 31 male no relig here

I am LDS and i am a conservative liberal. But i WILL NOT vote for hilary or McCain. I will write in ethan first! Lol

Im a 26 yr old rep. if its obama vs mcain i will vote obama.

I would vote obama over clinton and mccain…or i won’t vote at all. Its like choosing moldy cheese over rotten meat.

I will be voting for Obama if its between him and McCain. I have noticed as a student at WSU that most of the students i see are going to vote for Obama

U guys are right. Obama is my 2nd choice after romney

I would even prefer Hillary over a McCain Huckabee ticket, but definitely Obama, and I’m a 25 year old male.

I am a republican. If mccain wins the nomination, Obama all the way.

I am 27 male and live in Murray and I am a Rommey supporter but I am more willing to learn more about the democratic party and Obama. At least they seem honest.

I love that Utahans are opening their eyes and reasearching the issues. I would love to watch KSL in November and see a possible blue state.

19 male lds work for utah air national guard and also a student i am a strong republican i voted for romney today but if mcCain is chosen for the gop candiedent im voting for obama or hillary

I would rather sacrifice and go for obamas liberalism than mccains and the damage he may do.

I agree with the idea that mccain is more conservative than obama, but i want us utahans to make a statement that we don’t support collusions, dishonesty, and double standards. I would rather have someone that tells the truth about being a liberal.

36, LDS, male, republican, attorney. Voting Hillary or Obama.

27 l.d.s. Work @ walmart voting obama!!!

Mccain makes my skin crawl. For the first time in my life I will vote for a democrate. 52 years old Independent

Any one but john m! not lds rep,25,slc

Now, granted, when we come down to November, some of these people will vote for Satan if he has an R behind his name when they get to the ballot box, but some of them may just go for Obama. In fact, one blogger makes a bold prediction:

If Romney does hang up the towel, and the race becomes a two man race between McCain and Huckabee. Utah will go to a Democrat in the general election for the first time since 1964 (if Obama can get the Democratic nomination)

And, things like this will only help:

Mrs. Michelle Obama met with two apostles of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints today shortly after a campaign stop in Salt Lake City on behalf of her husband, Senator Barack Obama.

Mrs. Obama met with Elder M. Russell Ballard and Elder Quentin L. Cook, of the Twelve Apostles.

Although the Church is neutral in party politics, it is common for political and government leaders to pay brief calls on Church leadership. The half-hour meeting focused mostly on family values.

Current Delegate Count After Super Tuesday

[Update 2/20/08 1:52 PM: For Up-to-the-minute delegate counts, click here]

***Please note: These are current as of Feb 6 at 11:40 AM. Many States (including Utah) have not released results in congressional districts. Therefore, many of the delegates up for grabs yesterday have not been allocated. I'll post an update when delegates are distributed.

Democrats (2025 Needed to nominate)

Hillary Clinton 401 (19.6%)
Barack Obama 378 (18.7%)
John Edwards 26 (1.3%)

Republicans (1191 needed to nominate)

John McCain 464 (39.0%)
Mitt Romney 167 (14.0%)
Mike Huckabee 148 (12.4%)
Ron Paul 11 (0.9%)
Fred Thompson 11 (0.9%)
Duncan Hunter 1 (0.0%)

Republican Results as of 7:12 PM

Alabama (15% in)
McCain 42%
Huckabee 33%
Romney 20%

Arkansas (3% in)
Huckabee 59%
McCain 23%

Connecticut (28% in)
McCain 53%
Romney 32%

Delaware (81% in)
McCain 45%
Romney 33%
Huckabee 16%

Georgia (42% in)
Huckabee 35%
McCain 32%
Romney 29%

Illinois (6% in)
McCain 51%
Romney 29%

Massachusetts (21%)
Romney 52%
McCain 41%

Missouri (5% in)
Huckabee 37%
McCain 30%
Romney 24%

Montana (14% in)
McCain 39%
Romney 27%
Huckabee 19%
Paul 15%

New Jersey (24% in)
McCain 56%
Romney 28%

Oklahoma (26% in)
McCain 37%
Huckabee 34%
Romney 23%

Tennessee (13% in)
McCain 34%
Huckabee 30%
Romney 21%

West Virginia (100%)
Huckabee 52%
Romney 47%

Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes

Current Delegate Count After Florida

[Update 2/20/08 1:52 PM: For Up-to-the-minute delegate counts, click here]

Democrats:

2,025 needed to win

Barack Obama 63 (3.11%)
Hillary Rodham Clinton 48 (2.37%)
John Edwards 26 (1.28%)

Republicans:

1191 needed to win

John McCain 98 (8.22%)
Mitt Romney 59 (4.95%)
Mike Huckabee 26 (2.18%)
Fred Thompson 11 (0.92%)
Ron Paul 8 (0.67%)
Duncan Hunter 1 (0.00%)

Current Delegate Count (Republicans) after Nevada, South Carolina

[Update 2/20/08 1:52 PM: For Up-to-the-minute delegate counts, click here]

1191 needed to win.

Romney, Mitt 59 (4.95%)
McCain, John S. 41 (3.44%)
Huckabee, Mike 26 (2.18%)
Thompson, Fred Dalton 11 (0.92%)
Paul, Ron 8 (0.67%)
Hunter, Duncan 1 (0.00%)

Your Current Delegate Counts After New Hampshire

[Update 2/20/08 1:52 PM: For Up-to-the-minute delegate counts, click here]

Much like the Election Night tally of the Electoral Vote, what actually matters in the primaries is the delegate count.

Current delegate count after New Hampshire:

Democrats (2025 needed to win):
Barack Obama 25
Hillary Clinton 24
John Edwards 18

Republicans(1191 needed):
Mitt Romney 21
Mike Huckabee 14
John McCain 12
Fred Thompson 8
Ron Paul 4
Rudy Giulliani 1
Duncan Hunter 1

Huckabee good for Utah Democrats?

At work, we spend a ton of time worrying about what a Clinton vs Romney matchup would do for Democrats' chances in Utah in November.

We spend some time talking about the effects of the various Democrats on our local ticket. But, we spend almost no time talking about the strengths/weeknesses in Utah of GOP rivals of Fib Romney.

I've often thought that adulterer Rudy 9/11 would be fun for Utah Republicans to try and support.

Ethan Millard, host of KSL's Nightside Project wrote on his blog that he has gotten many calls from Utah Republicans that said they would vote for a Democrat before they voted for the Anti-Mittmon Mike Huckabee.

In the comments section, Tom Grover of KVNU;s For the People say that Cache Valley residents are telling him the same thing.

Funny thing is, I'm hearing the same thing from some of my Republican friends. In fact, one friends said that he'll vote for Obama over any Republican not named Mitt.

It's a good day to be a Democrat in Utah!

-Bob

McCain's not-so-subtle Cross

Much has been made about the bookcase behind Mike Huckabee looking too much like a cross. I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt. See what you think:



However, I think that John McCain definitely one-ups Huckabee in the Pandering to Christians category:

New Huckabee Ad

Christian Shooter a Mormon -- Will it Hurt Mitt?

By now, you've heard about the shooting at two Colorado Christian Churches this past Sunday.

One of my thought was that it was going to be one more "persecution" for Christians to be obsessed about.

Well, it turns out that the kid who did the shooting was baptized into the LDS Church last year.

Yep. The Christian Killer was a Mormon.

I'm sure the Huckabee camp is going to be making a fuss about it soon. Sure, they'll apologize after the damage is done.

But this is going to hurt Mitt even more....

-Bob

I'm not laughing

So, when I first saw this video, I thought it a little humorous (if not completely off-base). Gov. Huckabee making fun of Rudy's getting phone calls at the lectern.

Then, I found out the video comes from 2004. Now, it just becomes sacrilege.

Romney 3rd in BYU straw poll

The Flip Romney campaign seems to enjoy trumpeting their "wins" in straw polls, most of which the campaign purchases.

So, I'll reprint a loss in a straw poll at a place that you'd think Mitt would triumph: BYU.

The BYU Democrats held a plastic recycling drive in the Wilk the past week. Each bottle you brought earned you a vote.

The results:

Barack Obama: 61, Joe Biden: 49, Mitt Romney: 40, Hillary Clinton: 37, Undecided/Apathetic: 32, Stephen Colbert/Jon Stewart: 6, Rudy Guiliani: 2, Ron Paul: 2, John Edwards: 1, Mike Huckabee: 1

This balloting was open to everyone who wanted to be wise stewards of the Earth.