FOX News Poll Bad For Romney

Fox News, that bastion of liberal media, released a new poll today.

And, well that poll looks bad.  It's bad for Mitt Romney.

The poll was conducted by live telephone calls on both cell phones and land line phones August 5-7.  All respondents were registered voters.  Margin of error is 3 points.

Romney 40%
Obama 49%
Other 2%
Would Vote 2%
Don't Know 8%

So, what you have is Obama with a 9-point lead over Romney.  In their July 15-17 poll, that number was 45-41 Obama, so he's increasing his lead.

One thing that made me nervous was that respondents were asked how interested about the election they were.    Of those who were "Extremely Interested" (42% of the sample), The Romney-Obama race was tied at 48-48.  However, in the previous poll, Romney led extremely interested voters 53-42.  So, Romney is losing ground with those extremely interested.

On Favorable/Unfavorable ratings for the candidates, we see Obama is more favorable than Romney

Obama 54% Favorable 42% Unfavorable
Romney 46% Favorable 45% Unfavorable

And, according to this poll, Obama has a 49% approval rating (46% disapprove).  President Obama has hovered between 42-49% since he hit 55% approval in May 2011 (just after the bin Laden kill).  While it's tough to win as an incumbent with an approval rating below 50%, It seems kike many of those who don't approve of Obama still won't vote for Mitt.

Regardless of how you would vote, how comfortable would you be with Mitt Romney as President?
Extremely Comfortable 8%
Very Comfortable 18%
Somewhat Comfortable 33%
Not at All comfortable 38%
Don't Know 3%

And, they asked the 71% that would be somewhat or not very comfortable with a President Romney what the main reason they felt that way. And, the answers they gave showed us where Romney fails:

His positions on the issues 17%
Phony/Dishonest 9%
Out of Touch 8%
Republican/Conservative 7%
For the Rich 7%
Everything 6%
His Wealth/He's rich 5%
Changes his positions/Flip flops 5%
Don't know enough about him 5%
Business Background/experience 4%
No Substance 3%
Too Conservative 2%
Religion/Mormonism 2%
Arrogant 2%
No Charisma 1%
Not Conservative enough 1%
Too close to Bush/Same as Bush 1%
Other 6%
Don't know 9%

So, most of the answers given are about Mitt the man, and it's hard to reintroduce yourself to the American people.  It can be done, but it's hard.  Especially when people have an opinion that you are an out of touch, dishonest rich politician in it for yourself.

Let's look at Obama on the same question:

Extremely Comfortable 21%
Very Comfortable 20%
Somewhat comfortable 22%
Not at all Comfortable 37%
Don't know 1%

Of the 59% of people who were somewhat or not at all comfortable with a second term for President Obama, they gave these reasons why:

Performance as President: 25%
Unemployment/Jobs/No economic recovery 15%
His positions on the issues 14%
Everything 9%
Health Care plan 6%
Big Government spending 5%
Socialist policies 4%
Phony/Dishonest 4%
Changes his positions/Flip flops 3%
Democrat/Liberal 2%
Taxes 2%
No substance/just a celebrity 1%
Arrogant 1%
Against business -
His background/race -
Other 5%
Don't know 4%

But, here's the kicker question, the question that has to have Team Mitt shaking in their shoes:

If Barack Obama is re-elected as president, which of the following best describes your feelings?

42% The country's going down the drain and I am dreading what is going to happen in the next four years.
18% The country's improving every day and I look forward to another four years.
7% neither
3% Don't know

Interesting Poll Spin from Herbert Campaign

From the Herbert Campaign Blog, March 25:

A recent poll by the non-partisan "Utah Foundation" proves why the best choice for Utah governor this year IS the Governor. Governor Herbert's focus on jobs, economic development, education, infrastructure, and energy development is right in line with what Utahn's expect from their Governor.

Interesting. While I could find information about economic development, education, infrastructure, and energy development on Herbert's Issues page, I also found information about economic development, education, infrastructure, and energy development on Peter Corroon's Vision page.

Note that infrastructure was not listed as one of the top 10 issues identified by the Utah Foundation poll, which can be found here.

As far as differences on the issues go, that's a post for a later date. However, I do want to point out a couple of things that are big changes in how people felt compared to 2008.

Is Utah's Quality of life better than five years ago?

Much Better 3% (7%)
Somewhat Better 13% (30%)
About The Same 37% (37%)
Somewhat Worse 41% (17%)
Much Worse 4% (5%)
Don't Know 2% (4%)
(Numbers in parentheses from 2008)

I wonder how the numbers would have looked last year at the start of Herbert's ascending to the Governor's seat.

Granted, those numbers somewhat reflect the general state of the economy. However, let's take a look at right track/wrong track numbers:

Is Utah Headed in the Right Direction?

Right Track: 51% (68%) [65%]
Wrong Track: 36% (20%) [23%]
Don't Know: 13% (13%) [12%]
(Numbers in parentheses from 2008)[Numbers in brackets from 2004]

So, significantly fewer people think Utah's headed in the right direction than did just two years ago, before Gary Herbert took over as Governor.

Matheson: Hard To Argue With 64% Approval

Basically, I'm link dumping here, but Jim Matheson has the highest approval rating of any of our congresscritters:

Name Approve Disapprove Don't know
President Barack Obama 30% 69% 1%
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi 21% 72% 7%
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid 25% 55% 20%
Senator Orrin Hatch 64% 30% 6%
Senator Bob Bennett 54% 37% 9%
Congressman Rob Bishop 48% 18% 34%
Congressman Jim Matheson 64% 27% 9%
Congressman Jason Chaffetz 55% 21% 24%
Source: Dan Jones Poll for KSL/Deseret News Margin of error: +/- 6.5%

The poll also asked about aspects of the health care bill:

Reform Agree Disagree Don't know
Pre-existing conditions covered 76% 22% 2%
Coverage for 36 million uninsured 49% 48% 3%
Americans required to have insurance 42% 57% 1%
Exchange to shop and compare policies 77% 21% 2%
Reduce out-of-pocket prescription costs 73% 23% 4%
Source: Dan Jones Poll for KSL/Deseret News Margin of error: +/- 6.5%

Overall Congressional Democrats' Health Insurance Reform Plan
Favor Oppose Don't know
30% 67% 3%
Source: Dan Jones Poll for KSL/Deseret News Margin of error: +/- 6.5%

Of Popularity and Polls

From Utah Policy:

Atty. Gen. Mark Shurtleff has an approval rating of 63%, the second highest rating among Utah's top politicians, only behind Congressman Jim Matheson at 71%....

After Shurtleff comes Sen. Orrin Hatch, 62%; Sen. Bob Bennett, 58%; Gov. Gary Herbert, 57%; SL County Mayor Peter Corroon, 45%; Congressman Jason Chaffetz, 41%; and Congressman Rob Bishop, 39%. Those statewide numbers are the results of a survey conducted by Dan Jones & Associates Jan. 8-11, with a 600 sample and a possible 4% error margin, plus or minus.

Ah! Panic! Corroon only has 45% approval Numbers, right?

Well, these are statewide numbers. Corroon's numbers actually look pretty good:

Corroon, who is running for governor, has a relatively low favorability rating at 45% statewide, but he also has the lowest unfavorable rating of all politicians, at only 12%, and a whopping 40% have no opinion or haven't heard of him. So those who have a locked-in opinion about him are overwhelmingly positive. In his home stomping grounds of Salt Lake County he has a very healthy 67% favorability rating.

LaVarr Webb, who wrote the piece, doesn't say what Governor Herbert's disapproval numbers are. I'd be interested to see that.

-Bob

Horrible Birther Poll Reporting by KSL/DesNews

The Results:

Do you believe that Barack Obama was born in Hawaii and, therefore, is a U.S. citizen?

Definitely a U.S. citizen: 48%
Probably a U.S. citizen: 19%
Probably Not a U.S. citizen: 4%
Definitely not a U.S. citizen: 5%
Don't Know: 23%

(n=402, Conducted Aug 3-5, MoE =/- 5%)

So, 9% of those polled don't think Obama's a citizen. So, how do you spin the poll?

DesNews: 1/3 of Utahns question Obama birthplace

KSL: One-third of Utahns unsure if Pres. Obama is American

-Bob

New ARG Poll: Bush <20%, Literally Nobody Says Economy Getting Better

American Research Group, September 16-19, 2008. MoE +/-3% (Previous Results August 2008)

*Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
Approve 19% (30)
Disapprove 76 (64)
Undecided 5 (6)

*Do you think the national economy is getting better, staying the same, or getting worse?
Getting Better 0% (18)
Staying the Same 13 (19)
Getting Worse 82 (60)
Undecided 5 (3)

New DNews Utah Presidential Poll

Dnews and the stupidest poll ever

The Deseret News has one of the stupidest polls in the history of politics in today's paper.

I mean, really, the poll might as well have been "which candidate would you most want to play monopoly with." Because that would be about as good.

Most of the article centers on whether Utahns think that Mitt still has a chance.

Like, maybe if we clap our hands enough here in Utah, he won't die.

They also asked if Mitt's Mormonism hurt him in Iowa. I think Mitt's lack of honesty, and therefore lack of Mormonism, hurt him in the race.

But the most telling question in the poll: Who do you want to win, and who do you think will win in November.

The want to win:
Romney: 55%
Don't Know: 11%
Hillary Clinton 11%
Barack Obama: 8%
Everyone Else below Margin of Error.

Who Utah Thinks Will Win:
Don't know: 33%
Obama: 19%
Romney: 17%
Clinton: 14%
John McCain: 9%
Everyone Else under margin of error.

How about who people will be voting for on November 5?

That wasn't asked.

-Bob

Vote in my straw poll

The purpose of this straw poll is two-fold. #1 is that I'm curious as to who my readers support for President. #2 is that I want something concrete to show a few people in the office what ranked-choice balloting is like.

I've included all 18 candidates that will b on the ballot here in Utah on February 5.

So, take a gander at the poll here:

http://www.demochoice.org/dcballot.php?poll=strawnov07

The poll will be open until next Friday.

-Bob

New DNews Poll on Vouchers

Poll taken last week. MoE +/- 5%. (Trend lines July 2007)

For: 34% (36%)
Against: 60% (57%)
Undecided: 7% (6%)

My favorite part of the article was this spin from a PCE spokeswoman:

"That's not a huge difference from the latest numbers, and Barker said it shows that voucher opponents haven't gained much ground."

Yes, but when you're behind by 21 points and the opposition is gaining ground, even a little bit hurts.

-Bob

KSL's Referendum Opinion is Wrong

KSL:

A lot of powerful interests want to overturn Utah's new school voucher law through a voter referendum. KSL views the effort as a waste of time, energy and means.

As a long-time supporter of public education, KSL has never championed the idea of using precious tax dollars to subsidize private schools. And we're not convinced the new voucher law will lead ultimately to significant improvements in education in Utah, as proponents adamantly claim.

Still, the voucher law passed only after many years of intense public debate and strategic compromises. Proponents won the legislative battle fair and square. Now the proof of their optimistic claims "is in the pudding."

With passage of the law came a number of safeguards, including a late-session amendment to fully audit the program after five-years. If the voucher program isn't working as touted - if public money is being squandered - the public will know it and lawmakers will be held accountable.

Besides, the history of referendums in Utah is bleak. Utahns, it seems, are reluctant to legislate from the ballot box. And polls suggest support for overturning the voucher law, though significant, is not overwhelming.

There's no need to put the community through such a divisive and futile battle.

The battle was not won fair and square. It was purchased fair and square, and largely by out of state groups.

The Citizens of Utah are upset that the legislature has ignored them on this issue.

From a KSL story:

The new Dan Jones poll of 418 Utahns asked: "Do you favor or oppose the voucher system adopted by the governor and the majority of lawmakers?"
39% favor it, while 56% oppose it.

Our poll asked: "Would you sign a petition to allow voters to decide whether or not to adopt school vouchers?"
80% say yes and only 18% say no.

A higher percentage of people want the referendum than voted for George W Bush in Utah in 2004.